What is Demography And Politics Of Northern Ireland?

Northern Ireland
This article is part of the series: Politics of Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland Assembly Acts: Acts Members: 1998 - 2003 - 2007 Elections: 1998 - 2003 - 2007 Presiding Officer Northern Ireland Executive First Minister: Ian Paisley Deputy First Minister: Martin McGuinness Departments and agencies Local Government Courts of Northern Ireland
In the United Kingdom
United Kingdom Parliament Committees: Affairs - Grand Members: Commons - Lords Elections: 2005 United Kingdom Government Northern Ireland Office Secretary of State • Direct Rule
Organisations
British-Irish Council Electoral Commission North/South Ministerial Council
See also
Belfast Agreement (1998) St Andrews Agreement (2006) Elections in Northern Ireland Constituencies • Political parties
Other countries :commons:Atlas of Northern_Ireland	Atlas   Template:Politics of Northern_Ireland	view • Template talk:Politics of Northern_Ireland	talk • [ edit]

General demographics

Population

1,685,267

The population of Northern Ireland has increased annually since 1978.^[1]

Place of birth

• UK:
• Northern Ireland: 1,534,268 (91.0%)
• England: 61,609 (3.7%)
• Scotland: 16,772 (1.0%)
• Wales: 3,008 (0.2%)
• Europe:
• Republic of Ireland: 39,051 (2.3%)
• Elsewhere in the EU: 10,355 (0.6%)
• Elsewhere: 20,204 (1.2%)

Ethnicity

• White: 1,670,988 (99.15%)
• Chinese: 4,145 (0.25%)
• Mixed: 3,319 (0.20%)
• Irish Traveller: 1,710 (0.10%)
• Indian: 1,567 (0.09%)
• Other Ethnic Group: 1,290 (0.08%)
• Pakistani: 666 (0.04%)
• Black African: 494 (0.03%)
• Other Black: 387 (0.02%)
• Black Caribbean: 255 (0.02%)
• Bangladeshi: 252 (0.01%)
• Other Asian: 194 (0.01%)

source: Northern Ireland Census 2001
See also Ethnic Minorities in Northern Ireland

Life expectancy at birth:^[2]
Men: 76 years
Women: 80.8 years


Age structure:^[1]
0-15 years:
398,056
16-17 years:
53,458
Total under 18 years:
451,514 (26.8%)
18-64 years:
1,010,428 (60%)
65-74 years:
123,193 (7.3%)
75 years and over:
100,150 (5.9%)


Population growth rate:^[3]
0.275% (2007 est.)


Birth rate:^[1]
12.7 births/1,000 population (2000)


Death rate:^[1]
8.8 deaths/1,000 population (2000)


Migration rate:^[4]
2.18 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2006 est.)


Sex ratio:
at birth:
1.05 m/f
0-14 years:
1.05 m/f
15-64 years:
1.025 m/f
65 years and over:
0.75 m/f
total population:
0.98 m/f (2007 est.)


Infant mortality rate:^[1]
6.4 deaths/1,000 live births (1999)


Total Period Fertility Rate (TPFR):^[1]
1.74 children born/woman (2000)


HIV/AIDS prevalence rate:^[1]
0.024% (2005 est.)


People living with HIV/AIDS:^[4]
408 (2005)

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Political demographics

Much of the population of Northern Ireland identifies with one of two different ideologies, unionist (who want the region to remain part of the United Kingdom) and nationalist (who want a united Ireland). Unionists are predominantly protestant, most of whom belong to the Presbyterian Church in Ireland or the Church of Ireland. Nationalists are predominantly Roman Catholic. However, not all Catholics support Nationalism, and not all Protestants support Unionism. It is also important to note that, in parallel with other parts of Europe, the proportion of the population practising their religious beliefs has fallen dramatically in recent decades, particularly among Catholics and adherents of mainstream Protestant denominations. This has not necessarily resulted in a weakening of communal feeling.

Once established under the Government of Ireland Act 1920, Northern Ireland was structured geographically to guarantee a unionist majority in its government. In local government the significantly nationalist area of Derry produced a Unionist majority through the gerrymandering of the electoral ward. Ironically, when the issue of gerrymandering was addressed in 1973, the changing of the electoral wards favoured Unionism. [1] Anger at local government control by unionists, and the alleged awarding of social housing to Protestants to ensure unionist majorities in areas with large Catholic populations, was a significant factor in the creation of the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association in the 1960s, with a sit-in by nationalist politician Austin Currie in a house granted to a 19-year old single Protestant woman (who worked for the Ulster Unionist Party) ahead of a large homeless Catholic family triggering off the movement. [2] This was the only known documented case of this having happened. As Currie himself said at the time, "If I had waited a thousand years, I'd never get a better case than this one."

The number of people claiming to be Roman Catholic in the Northern Ireland census has steadily increased, though has slowed somewhat in recent decades. By contrast, the number of people claiming to be Presbyterian and Church of Ireland in the census has decreased. Statisticians predict both communities will achieve close to parity in size, with Protestants dominant primarily to the east and north of Northern Ireland and Catholics dominant to the west and south. Some foresee an eventual Catholic majority (albeit slight) However as of 2005 most statisticians predict that Protestants will continue to slightly outnumber Catholics in Northern Ireland as a whole for some time to come. Others claim that the rise in immigration into Northern Ireland coupled with rising number of (mainly younger) people alienated from both religion and the political process could bring about a "no overall control" situation.

The religious affiliations, based on census returns, have changed as follows between 1961 and 2002:

Religious Affiliations in Northern Ireland 1961–2001

Religions	1961	1991	2001
Roman Catholic	34.9%	38.4%	40.3%
Presbyterian (Protestant)	29.0%	21.4%	20.7%
Church of Ireland (Protestant)	24.2%	17.7%	15.3%
Other Religions (including other Protestant)	9.3%	11.5%	9.9%
Not Stated	2.0%	7.3%	9.0%
None	0.0%	3.8%	5.0%

Views on the Union

Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2006 [4]

Religion	Affiliation	2003
Protestant	Unionist	69%
	Nationalist	0%
	Neither	30%
	Don't know	0%
Catholic	Unionist	3%
	Nationalist	54%
	Neither	42%
	Don't know	2%
Total	Unionist	36%
	Nationalist	23%
	Neither	40%
	Don't know	1%

Most Northern Ireland Catholics support unification, although opinion polls have shown a minority (approximately 30% according to a study in 2005, although as the above survey from 2003 gives 0% citing "Unionist" affiliation the two concepts are not synonymous), who support remaining part of the United Kingdom, usually while continuing to support nationalist political parties. The proportion of Protestants given in the study who wish to join the Republic is usually smaller. There are also considerable numbers of people who give ambiguous answers to questions about the future constitutional status of Northern Ireland. Some who want unification consider themselves to be republicans as opposed to nationalists, some of whom are extremists. Some nationalists have sought a favourable arrangement for Ireland within the United Kingdom. Some extremists in the Protestant community (such as paramilitaries and their supporters) usually term themselves as loyalists, as opposed to unionists. As a result, the term "loyalist" has become less popular among unionists in recent decades, especially with unionist politicians. A small minority of people from both religious backgrounds advocate Independence for Northern Ireland (possibly accompanied by some form of realignment of the Border with the Republic). Support for this concept while fluctuating is regarded as insignificant.

While elections in Northern Ireland are often characterised as mini-referendums on the constitutional question, this is too simplistic an analysis. Voters may also perceive voting to be about strengthening the hand of their section of the community within Northern Ireland, or about gaining advantage for their social class.

Political representation

Northern Ireland currently has the following political representation:

• 18 seats in the United Kingdom House of Commons (currently 10 unionist, 5 republican (abstentionist), 3 nationalist)
• a number of Unionists have been appointed by the former Prime Minister Tony Blair to the United Kingdom House of Lords including Eileen Paisley and David Trimble. Currently no republicans or nationalists have been appointed to this legislative body, although the late Gerry Fitt, the first leader of the nationalist SDLP sat from 1983 until 2005. On 7 Mar 2007 the House of Commons voted in favour of replacing the Lords with an elected chamber. This might have the effect of giving republicans/nationalists representation in the upper house at some time in the future. However, it was a non-binding vote. Following the disestablishment of the Church of Ireland in 1871 that church no longer sends representatives to the House of Lords unlike the Church of England which continues to send 2 archbishops and 24 bishops who are known as Lords Spiritual. Bishops of the Roman Catholic church are not represented.
• the Northern Ireland Assembly has 108 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) (currently 55 unionists, 45 nationalists, 9 others), which had its powers restored on 8 May 2007.
• 3 seats in the European Parliament (currently two unionist, one republican)
• at local level there are currently 26 district councils - on 22 November 2005 Peter Hain, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced proposals to reduce the number of councils to seven .

Note: As the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland is a constitutional monarchy there is no election for Head of State. Following the Act of Settlement 1701 the throne passed to the descendants of Electress Sophia of Hanover, a granddaughter of James I of England. Only the descendants of Sophia who were Anglican or Protestant, and had not married a Roman Catholic could succeed the throne. Roman Catholics and those married to Roman Catholics are barred from ascending the throne "for ever".

Voting patterns

Voting patterns break down as follows:

• 2007 Assembly election - Unionists 47.6%, Republicans/Nationalists 41.8%, Others 10.4%
• 2005 Westminster election - Unionists 51.4%, Republican/Nationalists 41.8%, Others 6.8%
• 2005 local elections - Unionists 49.6%, Republicans/Nationalists 41.1%, Others 10.7% http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/flg05.htm
• 2004 European election - Unionists 48.6%, Republicans/Nationalists 42.2%, Others 9.2%
• 2003 Assembly election - Unionists 52.1%, Republicans/Nationalists 40.5%, Others 7.4%

Electoral systems

In all elections in Northern Ireland the Single Transferable Vote system of Proportional representation is used except for the House of Commons elections where a "first past the post" or Plurality voting system is used.

Proposed representation

Sinn Féin, currently the biggest of the republican/nationalist parties in Northern Ireland, has campaigned for a broadening of the franchise of Northern Ireland voters to allow them to vote in elections to choose the President of Ireland. It has also demanded that all Northern Ireland Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and MPs be allowed speaking rights in the lower house of the parliament of the Republic of Ireland, Dáil Éireann. It was given to understand that the Irish government has accepted this and had plans to introduce legislation in the autumn of 2005 [5]. The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) backed the move. However, a spokesman for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern later rowed back, stating that it had never been intended that northern MPs have a right to attend plenary sessions of the Dáil, but that they would be invited to participate in Oireachtas committees dealing with Northern Ireland matters, and only if there was all-party agreement behind it. The unionist parties, along with Fine Gael, Labour and the Progressive Democrats have all declared their opposition to the move, as has much of the Irish media, with articles highly critical of the proposal published in The Irish Times and the Sunday Independent [6] [7].

Political parties

Political parties in Northern Ireland can be divided into three distinct categories:

• unionist parties, such as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), and other smaller parties such as the Progressive Unionist Party and the United Kingdom Unionist Party
• republican/nationalist parties like Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP)
• cross-community parties such as the Alliance Party and the Green Party.

There are some parties who could fit comfortably in more than one of these groups, or about whom it could be argued which group they would fall into, such as the Conservative Party who, while pro-union, stated an intention before the 2007 election to designate as "other" should they gain any seats in the Assembly (which they did not).

Unionist parties

The Ulster Unionist Party were historically a cross-class massenpartei who ran a one-party Northern Ireland Government from its creation until 1972, although since the rise of the DUP in the 1970s, their support has been more middle-class. Until 1972 the UUP's members of the British House of Commons took the Conservative Party whip, although for the past 32 years they have sat as a party in their own right. The UUP's member of the European Parliament belongs to the European Democrats Group. The DUP are a more complex mixture than the other major parties — combining support from rural evangelicals and from urban, secular, working-class voters. The party is firmly to the right on issues such as abortion, capital punishment, European integration and equal opportunities (although the party seems to be moderating its stance on gay rights since the "Save Ulster from Sodomy" campaign of the 1980s). Conversely, the DUP often support social programmes which benefit their working class or agricultural base, for example, free public transport for the elderly and European Union agricultural subsidies. The DUP have grown in recent years as they are the only major party to oppose the Good Friday Agreement. Their Member of the European Parliament (MEP), Jim Allister, sits as an Independent in the European Parliament, but is perceived to be close to the Independence and Democracy group. The stronger base in working class may be one of the reasons behind radicalism in both unionist (e.g. DUP) and nationalist camp (Sinn Féin). Higher level of education tends to produce liberal views, and conversely, lower education is likely to make people accept simple and one-sided messages, characteristic of the radical parties of both camps.^[6] People with little church attendance are more likely to vote the DUP; however, the party have a strong base among the Presbyterans as well. The more important factor is that young people of both unionist and republican camps tend to vote for radical parties.^[7]

The smaller Progressive Unionist Party and Ulster Political Research Group are linked with the Ulster Volunteer Force and Ulster Defence Association respectively. The UK Unionist Party is essentially a one-man show led by Robert McCartney former MLA for North Down.

Republican/nationalist parties

Similarly, on the nationalist side of the political spectrum, Sinn Féin has overtaken the traditionally dominant SDLP in recent elections. Sinn Féin is a radical republican and socialist party, theoretically committed to espousing an all-Ireland socialist republic. Some also dispute the party's claims to be a Socialist party. Traditionally the party of the urban Catholic working-class and a number of republican rural areas, since the IRA ceasefires of the mid-1990s it has expanded its base considerably, and has overtaken the long-dominant SDLP in terms of vote share. Many of their opponents, especially more hardline republicans, contend that its experience of government has blunted the party's revolutionary enthusiasm. The SDLP are a nominally social democratic party and a full member of the Party of European Socialists and Socialist International. However, as the Northern Ireland party system is not based on socio-economic divisions, it inevitably attracts a wider spectrum of opinion and has a middle-class support base. The SDLP nominally support Irish unification, but reject utterly the use of violence as a means to that end. The SDLP has lost considerable support in the past decade, with the retirement of key figures such as former leader John Hume and deputy leader Seamus Mallon and the IRA's cessation of violence. The party has been torn between members who wish to follow a post-nationalist agenda focusing primarily on "bread and butter issues" (taxation, employment, education, health, etc) and those who wish to follow a more traditionalist nationalist campaign to challenge Sinn Féin. In March 2005, the party launched a major policy programme on working to a united Ireland, suggesting that it has now opted to focus on traditional issues of identity (Irish or British, unionist or nationalist) than on economic or social issues. Ironically some commentators maintain that with the rise of Sinn Féin the SDLP's remaining support comes mainly from "Unionist Catholics". Unlike in unionism, church attendance is – according to the study of Evans and Duffy – not a major factor in patterns of republican parties' supporters (though Sinn Féin supporters tend to attend less). The left–right ideology has also less impact than in case of unionism. The age has a strong impact on party choice: the more radical Sinn Féin has more support among the young than the SDLP has. The most important factor is attachment to nationalist ideology: Sinn Féin has high levels of support among the people strongly committed to nationalism^[8]

Cross community and other parties

Among the cross-community parties, the Alliance Party draws its support mainly from middle-class professionals in the suburbs of Belfast. It professes to be the only significant party which does not base its political stance around the constitutional question. The party has strong links with the Liberal Democrats in Britain and is a member of the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party and Liberal International.

Other parties who contest elections in Northern Ireland include the Green Party, the Workers Party and the Northern Ireland branch of the Conservative Party. The feminist Northern Ireland Women's Coalition briefly held seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly, but is now defunct. Ulster Third Way is a small grouping advocating independence for Northern Ireland. Fianna Fáil, the dominant party in the Republic, has recently opened a cumann (branch) in Derry, and begun recruiting at Queens University Belfast. The leadership as of 2005 has decided not to take part in electoral politics in Northern Ireland. Some, within both Fianna Fáil and the SDLP (including former SDLP European Elections candidate Martin Morgan) have advocated an alliance, or even a merger, between both parties. However, many in both parties are hostile to the idea, with some in the SDLP pointing out to the left-wing links between the party and the Irish Labour Party. Others in the SDLP are also closer to the Republic's second biggest party, Fine Gael and oppose a merger with that party's rival, Fianna Fáil.

Future of political parties in Northern Ireland

Some commentators believe there are indications that the religious and ethnic basis of the party system may start to disintegrate. For example, in the 1998–2003 Assembly, there was a Catholic Member of the Legislative Assembly sitting for the Ulster Unionist Party. The SDLP have had a number of Protestant representatives in the past. A Protestant SDLP councillor recently defected to Sinn Féin. Up to now, these have been one-off events, which have occurred periodically throughout Northern Ireland's history without setting a trend — cf Sir Denis Henry in the early part of the 20th century. In any event, social class is an important part of competition within the main ethnic political blocs, and class-based party structures in other established democracies have weakened since the end of the Cold War. Since the beginning of the peace process, the non-ethnic parties have declined, while the more radical Sinn Féin and DUP have prospered. Some observers counter that, in the long-term, the constitutional question may become less relevant due to the increasing role of the European Union, and therefore a less sectarian political system may develop although there has been little so far to bear this out.

National identity

In general, Protestants in Northern Ireland see themselves as being British, while Catholics regard themselves as being Irish, as been shown by data from 1989 to 2006 (see below). Therefore, it should not be assumed that everyone in Northern Ireland considers themselves to be "Irish", as is often mistakenly assumed by outsiders.

A 2006 report from the Institute of Governance stated that "Three-quarters of Northern Ireland’s Protestants regard themselves as British, but only 12 per cent of Northern Ireland’s Catholics do so. Conversely, a majority of Catholics (65%) regard themselves as Irish, whilst very few Protestants (5%) do likewise" and that "In Northern Ireland, very few respondents identify themselves as both British and Irish."^[9]

A 2002-2003 study conducted by researchers from the Universities of York, Oxford and Ulster found that "The meaning of British identity in Northern Ireland...is closely correlated to religious community, with Catholics in the main considering themselves as Irish and Protestants British. A significant number identified themselves as “northern Irish”. ^[10]

A survey in 1999 showed that 72% of Northern Ireland Protestants considered themselves "British" and 2% "Irish", with 68% of Northern Ireland Catholics considering themselves "Irish" and 9% "British".^[11] The survey also revealed that 78% of Protestants and 48% of all respondents felt "Strongly British", while 77% of Catholics and 35% of all respondents felt "Strongly Irish". 51% of Protestants and 33% of all respondents felt "Not at all Irish", while 62% of Catholics and 28% of all respondents felt "Not at all British".^[12][13]

Discussion of national identity may be complicated by the fact that many in Northern Ireland are not willing to accept national identities of others:

A 1997 publication by Democratic Dialogue financed by the Central Community Relations Unit of the Northern Ireland Office stated that "It is clear that many in Northern Ireland are willing to tolerate the Other's cultural identity only within the confines of their own core ideology...most nationalists have extreme difficulty in accepting unionists' Britishness or, even if they do, the idea that unionists do not constitute an Irish ethnic minority which can ultimately be accommodated within the Irish nation...." Discussion may be hindered by the lack of definitions which command cross-community support. For example, with regard to of "Irishness", the 1997 publication stated that "Irishness is a highly contested identity, subject to fundamentally different nationalist and unionist perceptions which profoundly affect notions of allegiance and group membership.".^[14]

Four polls taken between 1989 and 1994 revealed that when asked to state their national identity, over 79% of Northern Ireland Protestants replied "British" or "Ulster" with 3% or less replying "Irish", while over 60% of Northern Ireland Catholics replied "Irish" with 13% or less replying "British" or "Ulster".^[15]

See also

• Demography of the United Kingdom
• A Shared Future
• British national identity card
• Segregation in Northern Ireland
• List of Acts of the Northern Ireland Parliament
• List of Statutory Rules and Orders of Northern Ireland
• Political parties in the Republic of Ireland
• Royal Commission on the Constitution (United Kingdom)

References